Market Talk: What’s up today? | Swissquote

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Relevant updates, everyday! Our Senior Market Analyst, Ipek Ozkardeskaya, is tirelessly on the lookout for updates and outlines in this podcast exactly what you need to know to successfully untangle the thickets of the financial markets, day by day. About the expert: Ipek Ozkardeskaya started her career in 2010 at Banque Cantonal Vaudoise in the field of structured products. After that, her professional path led her to the world’s biggest financial hubs including Geneva, London and Shanghai. Since 2020, she works for Swissquote as Senior Analyst. Ipek is a specialist for FX, leading market indices, individual stocks, oil, commodities, bonds and interest rates. Subscribe to the podcast to never miss an episode!

A deluge of US data & Powell speech to shape Fed expectations!
vor 6 Tagen
A deluge of US data & Powell speech to shape Fed expectations!
Appetite in Asian equities improved on hints that China could ease the excessive Covid curbs as a response to angry anti-Covid protests, but appetite for rest of the market was limited before a deluge of US economic data and Federal Reserve (Fed) President Jerome Powell’s speech due between today and the end of the week. Investors will be watching the latest US GDP update, the JOLTS job openings, ADP report today, the US PCE, personal income and spending on Thursday, and US NFP and unemployment rate on Friday. Soft inflation and not too strong data is what the market needs to keep positive. But in all cases, it’s possible that we won’t see US equities extend gains by much, and we can see the S&P500 headed lower from the 200-DMA, which also coincides with the year-to-date descending channel top. Good news is that both a softer Fed due to a potentially softening inflation, or soft economic data in the US, should be negative for the US dollar, and could finally help the dollar ease against major currencies, hence ease the strong-dollar-led-high-inflation in the rest of the world. Due today, investors will have their eyes set on the Eurozone’s preliminary inflation data for November. Who knows, maybe we will see a figure below 10%, in which case, the EURUSD could make another attempt above the 200-DMA which stands near 1.0370. But as I always say, the US data, and Jerome Powell will say the last word on the overall direction in currency markets. Strong US data, and hawkish Fed comments could immediately turn the winds in favour of a stronger dollar yet again. Listen to find out more!
Softer euro boosts European stocks, and outflows from CS boost UBS
25-11-2022
Softer euro boosts European stocks, and outflows from CS boost UBS
Markets were quiet yesterday, as the US was closed for Thanksgiving. European markets mostly surfed on the positive reaction from the US equities to the Federal Reserve (Fed) minutes released a day earlier. The German DAX advanced to a fresh 5-month high, as the French CAC40 hit a fresh 7-month high, thanks to the euro’s appreciation against the greenback, which somehow eases the inflationary pressures for the European companies, along with the falling energy prices. Elsewhere, the latest minutes from the European Central Bank (ECB) released yesterday revealed that ‘a few’ officials favored a smaller rate increase, than the 75bp that the bank delivered last month, citing the other monetary tightening measures that would help restricting the monetary conditions. The Swedish Riksbank raised its interest rates by 75bp yesterday and said that the monetary tightening will continue to tame inflation in Sweden. The Korean Central Bank raised its interest rates by another 25bp to the highest levels since 2012 and the won gained, whereas the Turkish Central Bank CUT its policy rate by another 150bp points, but said that the easing is perhaps enough at 9%, and that risks on inflation – which stands around 85% officially, and 185% unofficially – increase from here. In China, the central bank signals lower reserve ratios for banks, and conducts reverse repo operations to boost liquidity in the system, as news of fresh Covid restriction measures creep in. The Chinese news certainly prevent oil bulls from jumping in the market right now, and the American crude consolidates below $80pb this morning, with solid offers seen at $82/85 range. In Switzerland, Credit Suisse continues making the headlines. The stock price flirts with all-time-lows, as UBS sees its share price extend gains as outflows from CS reportedly benefit UBS. Listen to find out more!
Sentiment improves before Thanksgiving
23-11-2022
Sentiment improves before Thanksgiving
The OECD said the global economy will avoid a recession this year, and next year, and that unemployment rates won’t skyrocket. That was the good news. But growth will be low and slow, and inflation will remain high, keeping central bank policies tight. That was the bad news The S&P500 gained, as strong earnings from retailers improved sentiment before Thanksgiving. Energy stocks performed well on the back of a sustained recovery in crude oil. Shell rallied 5% on announcement that the company will be reviewing its investment in the UK to avoid paying windfall taxes to the British government. BP rallied 6.52%. In central bank news, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) raised its rates by 75bp as expected today. The US dollar softened, and the EURUSD rebounded past 1.0320 in the middle of mixed comments about what the European Central Bank (ECB) should do at its next meeting. In precious metals, gold slid yesterday despite a softer US dollar, and softer yields. In China, stocks were not looking good as Beijing and Shanghai put stricter rules to slow the Covid contagion, again! But Alibaba rebounded almost 4% in HK today, on news that Ant Group would pay a fine over a billion USD. In cryptocurrencies, traders remain on the edge, on news that a ‘substantial amount’ of FTX assets have either been stolen or are missing. Bitcoin however resists. The price of a coin recovered above $16K yesterday, but risks remain tilted to the downside. Listen to find out more!
Fancy a beer?
21-11-2022
Fancy a beer?
Stocks in Asia fell this Monday on news that China reported its first death in six months from Covid on Sunday, and two other deaths followed. The news spurred fear that the government could make a U-turn on its decision of easing the strict Covid zero rules, and wreak havoc in Chinese markets, yet again. Elsewhere, the US-inflation-data boosted rally faded last week, on the back of a too-strong-to-be-happy retail sales print, and a couple of hawkish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Presidents, including a chart from Mr. Bullard where the Fed’s terminal rate stretched up to 7%! This week, investors will focus on interest rate hikes and the US Black Friday sales. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to raise its rates by another 75bp on Wednesday, the Fed will reveal the minutes from its latest meeting a little bit later that day, and the US will find out how much and of what people will be buying this Black Friday, after the Chinese Alibaba kept its 11.11 sales secret this year, and we had a devastating Q3 earnings and a gloomy guidance from Target last week. In commodities, the barrel of US crude slipped below the $80 psychological level last week, below the post-pandemic ascending trend base. In the FX, the US dollar kicks off the week on a positive footage, on the back of a retreat in dovish Fed expectations. In cryptocurrencies, contagion news from the FTX collapse continues making the headlines in cryptocurrencies. According to the latest news, FTX owes more than $3 billion to its unsecured creditors, and crypto.com, Binance and OKX suspended deposits of dollar-backed stablecoins, USDC and Tether before last weekend. In sports, the world’s most expensive World Cup kicked off this weekend in the middle of the Qatari desert, with a lot of unusual news, speculation and backlash about the CO2 emissions and limited sales of alcohol, among other criticism. Investors hope sports betting and beverage companies would see a boost from the event… Listen to find out more!
BoFA says sell S&P500 above 4100
16-11-2022
BoFA says sell S&P500 above 4100
US stocks extended rally yesterday, as the unexpected easing in producer prices beefed up the optimism that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would soften the monetary tightening and the better-than-expected New York Empire State Manufacturing index hinted that the US economy is holding up well. News that Russian missiles fell to Poland somehow killed a part of that falling-inflation, resilient growth optimism. But escalation of the tensions has been avoided so far, with US President Joe Biden saying that the missile was ‘unlikely’ fired from Russia. On the index level, the geopolitical fears remained short-lived, and the S&P500 finally rebounded to close the session a touch below the 4000 psychological mark. On the individual level, TSM jumped on Warren Buffet and Apple news, as Walmart gained on earnings, revenue beat and $20-billion buyback. In energy, US crude gained on the geopolitical concerns after the Poland attack, and on a more-than-5-million-barrel decline in US oil inventories last week. In the FX, the US dollar eased after the mixture of soft PPI and solid Empire Manufacturing revived the dovish Fed expectations. The EURUSD traded briefly above its 200-DMA, and Cable hit the 1.20 for the first time since this summer. On the data front, UK inflation data showed that inflation in the UK hit 11.1% in October vs 10.7% penciled in by analysts, revived the hawkish Bank of England (BoE) expectations but not GBP-appetite. Listen to find out more!
Focus on blurry US midterms, crypto meltdown & US inflation
10-11-2022
Focus on blurry US midterms, crypto meltdown & US inflation
Less aggressive support for the Republicans, and more importantly, looming uncertainty, are the major factors that weighed on investor sentiment yesterday. The S&P500 slid more than 2%, Dow Jones lost 1.95%, while Nasdaq dumped 2.40%. The selloff was also fueled by the shaking crypto markets, and perhaps some investors taking risk off the table before the US inflation data, due today. In cryptos, watching, what used to be the world’s 4th biggest crypto exchange go under the water, triggered panic across the sector, getting investors to question, whether FTX is an isolated case, or this is just the tip of the iceberg, and if and how many of the cryptocurrency exchanges may haves similar insolvency problems, that are only waiting to get revealed. In FX & commodities, US dollar rebounded yesterday on the back of a better-than-expected Democrat results, and some repositioning before today’s inflation data, gold held ground above $1700 per ounce, while US crude fell on China Covid news and weekly rise in US oil inventories. On the geopolitical front, news that Russia announced to pull out troops from Kherson triggered mild, and short-lived gains in equities. On the data front, investors hold their breath before the US inflation data due today. Headline inflation in the US is expected to have eased from 8.2%, to 8% in October, and core inflation is seen softer at 6.5%, compared to 6.6% printed a month earlier. PS: in six of the prior seven months, inflation exceeded expectations. So, there is a good chance that it’s the case this time around as well. Listen to find out more!