The clean energy transition, supply shortages, and a major macroeconomic shift all point towards strong performance by mining equities in 2024
2023 delivered a range of surprises for investors as the US banking crisis, China’s disappointing economic reopening, and multiple conflicts, buffeted markets. These events were accompanied by volatility caused by speculation over monetary policy direction, as central bankers, led by the US Federal Reserve, battled to tame rampant inflation.
We begin 2024 with global equity markets in a bullish state, in anticipation of lower interest rates, lower inflation, and a “soft landing”. Whether this euphoria lasts or fades, we believe a bull market phase for metals and mining is approaching. US interest rate cuts have historically given a significant boost to many commodity prices and to miners, particularly the precious metals sector. Meanwhile the seemingly unstoppable momentum of the clean energy transition continues to drive historic demand forecasts for the speciality and battery metals sector.
Key themes for the metals and mining sector in 2024:
The green revolution is gaining pace - COP28 reinforced commitments to decarbonise and transition to clean energy. Mining is a crucial part of the path to net zero, and demand for speciality metals is forecast to soar.
Short-term oversupply of certain battery metals will ease – Rapid investment in battery metals production, coupled with weak Chinese growth, caused oversupply for many metals in 2023. We see this reversing in 2024.
Supply-side challenges are growing – Miners face low discovery rates alongside strict permitting regimes and rising resource nationalism.Disclaimer
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and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell specific
financial instruments. All information is provided without guarantee and
does not constitute investment advice.